Preventing Water Conflict

International water conflict can occur if water resources become scarce and access to water is contested between states and experts are now attempting to head off such conflict by predicting when water supply, both within and between countries, will reach a dangerous tipping point.

Using information on climate changes to monitor the effect on future water supply, experts have pinpointed potential flashpoints where future conflict may occur.

A key example of the role rising temperatures are playing in the water crisis in South Asia is in the rapidly melting glaciers of the Himalayas, considered to contain the seeds of the first major conflict over water in the region, according to international water experts.

The rapid retreat of the Himalayan glaciers, which feed ten major rivers and are the water source for an estimated 1.3 billion people in the region, will see the border of India and Bangladesh as the first possible stage for future conflict over water allocation say researchers.

As populations increase and pollution of water effectively reduces the amount of potable water available in the South Asian region, climate scientists have said increasing temperatures will lead to further glacial melting, further reducing the amount of water available for people of South Asia.

“If we don’t address this [issue], it will further aggravate political conflict,” said Golam Rasul, senior economist at the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to the Financial Times.

Acute local conflicts over diminishing water supplies are already on the rise said experts at the Kathmandu-based ICIMOD - a joint project between the Government of Nepal and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).

Andreas Schild, director general of the center, said that water disputes between India and Bangladesh have dominated relations between the two neighboring countries, and there is a need to update water treaties which date back to the 1960s.

However he added that ongoing tensions between the two have not created an ideal political atmosphere for discussions over renewed water allocation.

“The political situation is not mature enough to go into basin-wide agreements,” he said to the Financial Times.

Meanwhile experts contend that dwindling water resources relative to increasing populations will exacerbate similar risks of conflict over water resources to the already water-stressed Middle East.

A possible taste of the world's water-stressed future is already being played out in the Middle-Eastern country of Yemen. Located in one of the most arid regions of the world, the country is riven by conflict and population movement, giving an example of what other countries could face should nothing be done to alleviate the growing lack of water resources, according to an October 21 article by The Times.

The report quotes water experts as saying that the country's capital, Sanaa, has an estimated ten years before its wells run dry however more pressure is put on its water resources as the city of two million continues to increase its population due to refugees arriving from other more conflict-ridden and water-stressed parts of the country.

Hosny Khordagui, director of the water governance program in Arab states at the United Nations Development Program, painted a grim picture of the country's future when he told The Times the lack of water would see more crime and violence; even resulting in increasing support for fanatical organizations which may spill over into conflict with neighboring countries.

“If they do not find a solution we will see people encroaching on big cities, the formation of slums, a rise in crime, venereal disease, violence, even fanaticism," said Khordagui. "Fanatics will find very fertile ground to recruit and develop their infrastructure.”

“We have a water shortage which reflects itself in fighting between the people . . . If we continue spending this much water on [irrigation for the local drug] qat, Sanaa has ten to fifteen years,” said Deputy Planning Minister, Hisham Sharaf.

However Professor Aaron Wolf, a water conflict resolution expert at the department of geosciences at Oregon State University, said water conflict between Middle East countries was not necessarily inevitable and in some cases provided reasons for collaboration and peaceful resolutions.

Speaking in an interview with the New York-based The Jewish Week, Prof Wolf said while history showed there had been conflict between Arabs and Israelis over scarce water resources, there had also been examples of cooperation and the signing of key treaties.

"Water has certainly been an underlying subtext in the Arab-Israeli conflict; it has helped define the shape of the political boundaries – but has also been an excuse for conversation," said Prof Wolf.

"This goes back to the 1950s; either implicitly or explicitly there have been negotiations and accommodation over shared water resources, even as terrific tensions and conflict were happening over other issues."

Prof Wolf contended that countries needed to focus on tangible issues such as water allocation between states to achieve creative solutions rather than to resort to conflict.